Copper (HG.FUT)

Court terme

Copper se replie dans un canal baissier. Pour la suite, la perte de terrain est signalée et il y a de la résistance vers le plafond du canal baissier. Le contrat future rencontre du support à environ 4.00 et de la résistance à environ 4.24 . La balance des volumes négative affaiblit la valeur sur le court terme. Le contrat future est généralement considéré comme légèrement negatif technique pour court terme.

Recommendation one to six weeks: Conclusion légèrement négative (Score: -50)

Moyen terme

Copper a débordé du canal haussier à la baisse. Cela indique dans un premier temps, un taux de croissance plus faible ou le début d'un développement plus horizontal. La valeur a atteint l'objectif de 4.30 après le franchissment d'une formation rectangulaire. Le cours de la valeur a perdu un peu depuis la hausse recente, par contre la formation reconnue, indique une poursuite de la hausse. Le contrat future rencontre du support à environ 3.96 et de la résistance à environ 4.64 . La balance des volumes négative affaiblit la valeur sur le court terme. La courbe RSI montre une tendance baissière, ce qui pourrait être le signal précursuer d'une nouvelle tendance baissière. Le contrat future est généralement considéré comme neutre technique pour moyen long terme.

Recommendation one to six months: Hold (Score: 8)

Long terme

Copper fluctue dans un canal haussier et une progression poursuivant le canal haussier est indiquée. En cas de corrections à la baisse il y a du support en bas du canal haussier. La valeur a atteint l'objectif de 4.73 après le franchissment d'une formation rectangulaire. Le cours de la valeur a perdu un peu depuis la hausse recente, par contre la formation reconnue, indique une poursuite de la hausse. Le contrat future teste le support à environ 4.00 . Cela doit normalement donner un rebond, Cependant, la vigilance doit s'imposer, parce qu'un franchissement du support à 4.00 déclenche un signal de vente. La balance des volumes est négative et affaiblit la valeur sur le court terme. Les volumes ont récemment fortement augmenté. Ceci indique de la part des opérateurs un fort intérêt pour le contrat future, probablement à cause d'informations fondamentales. Le contrat future est généralement considéré comme positif technique pour long terme.

Recommendation one to six quarters: Positif (Score: 78)

Investtech’s analyses focus on a stock’s trend status, short term momentum and volume development. These are central topics of technical analysis theory that describe changes in investor optimism or fluctuations in a company’s financial development. However, Investtech’s strong focus on these elements is due to research results that clearly indicate causation between these factors and future return on the stock market.

Trend

Theory: Stocks in rising trends will continue to rise.

Psychology/economy: Rising trends indicate that the company experiences positive development and increasing buy interest among investors. Read more

Research: Stocks in rising trend channels in Investtech’s medium long term charts have been followed by an annualized excess return of 7.8 percentage points compared to average benchmark development. This is shown by Investtech’s research into 34,880 cases of stocks in rising trends on the Nordic Stock Exchanges in the period 1996 to 2015.
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Momentum

Theory: Stocks with rising short term momentum will continue to rise. Stocks with very strong momentum (overbought) will react backwards.

Psychology/economy: RSI above 70 shows strong positive momentum. The stock has risen in the short term without any significant reactions downwards. Investors have kept paying more to buy stocks. This indicates that more investors want to buy the stock and that the price will continue to rise. Read more

Research: Stocks with strong momentum have on average continued to rise, and more so than the average stock listed on the Exchange. This is shown by Investtech’s research into 24,208 cases of stocks on the Nordic Stock Exchanges in the period 1996 to 2015 where RSI went above 70 points, indicating strong and increasing short term momentum. On average, annualized, the stocks rose the equivalent of 11.4 percentage points more than the average stock.
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Volume

Theory: Rising prices on high volume and falling prices on low volume indicate strength in a stock. Volume can confirm a rising trend or signal that a falling trend is ending.

Psychology/economy: When investors very much want to buy a stock, they have to increase the price to find new sellers. Rising price on high volume shows that some investors are so aggressive that they push the price up to be able to buy the stock. Investtech’s Volume Balance tool measures the relation between price rise and volume and measures investor aggression at rising and falling prices. Read more

Research: Stocks with volume balance above 40 have been followed by an average annual return of 4.7 percentage points on the Nordic Stock Exchanges, shown by research conducted by Investtech into 24,580 cases.
Read the research report here

 

Investtech's analyses

Investtech has combined theory, psychology and research into powerful investment tools.

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Investtech’s algorithms for analysis, ranking and stock recommendations are based on research dating back to 1993. Part of the research was conducted in cooperation with Oslo University and the Norwegian Research Council. Research still has high priority for Investtech. Many of the company’s research results are available for customers on the company’s web site.

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