Microsoft (MSFT.US)

Short term

Microsoft is within an approximate horizontal trend channel in the short term, which indicates further development in the same direction. The stock is moving within a rectangle formation between support at 413 and resistance at 425. A decisive break through one of these levels indicates the new direction for the stock. The stock is testing support at dollar 417. This could give a positive reaction, but a downward breakthrough of dollar 417 means a negative signal. Negative volume balance weakens the stock in the short term. The stock is overall assessed as technically neutral for the short term.

Recommendation one to six weeks: Hold (Score: 7)

Medium term

Microsoft has broken through the floor of a rising trend channel in the medium long term. This indicates a slower rising rate at first, or the start of a more horizontal development. A head and shoulders formation is under development. A decisive break of the support at 402, ideally with an increase in volume, signals a further fall. The stock is testing support at dollar 415. This could give a positive reaction, but a downward breakthrough of dollar 415 means a negative signal. Volume has previously been low at price tops and high at price bottoms. Volume balance is also negative, which weakens the stock. The stock is overall assessed as technically neutral for the medium long term.

Recommendation one to six months: Hold (Score: 11)

Long term

Microsoft has broken the floor of the rising trend channel in the long term, which indicates a weaker initial rising rate. A head and shoulders formation is under development. A decisive break of the support at 402, ideally with an increase in volume, signals a further fall. The stock is approacing resistance at 466 dollar, which may give a negative reaction. However, a break upwards through 466 dollar will be a positive signal. The volume balance is negative and weakens the stock in the short term. The stock is overall assessed as technically slightly negative for the long term.

Recommendation one to six quarters: Weak Negative (Score: -37)

Investtech’s analyses focus on a stock’s trend status, short term momentum and volume development. These are central topics of technical analysis theory that describe changes in investor optimism or fluctuations in a company’s financial development. However, Investtech’s strong focus on these elements is due to research results that clearly indicate causation between these factors and future return on the stock market.

Trend

Theory: Stocks in rising trends will continue to rise.

Psychology/economy: Rising trends indicate that the company experiences positive development and increasing buy interest among investors. Read more

Research: Stocks in rising trend channels in Investtech’s medium long term charts have been followed by an annualized excess return of 7.8 percentage points compared to average benchmark development. This is shown by Investtech’s research into 34,880 cases of stocks in rising trends on the Nordic Stock Exchanges in the period 1996 to 2015.
Read more about the research results here

 

Momentum

Theory: Stocks with rising short term momentum will continue to rise. Stocks with very strong momentum (overbought) will react backwards.

Psychology/economy: RSI above 70 shows strong positive momentum. The stock has risen in the short term without any significant reactions downwards. Investors have kept paying more to buy stocks. This indicates that more investors want to buy the stock and that the price will continue to rise. Read more

Research: Stocks with strong momentum have on average continued to rise, and more so than the average stock listed on the Exchange. This is shown by Investtech’s research into 24,208 cases of stocks on the Nordic Stock Exchanges in the period 1996 to 2015 where RSI went above 70 points, indicating strong and increasing short term momentum. On average, annualized, the stocks rose the equivalent of 11.4 percentage points more than the average stock.
Read the research report here

 

Volume

Theory: Rising prices on high volume and falling prices on low volume indicate strength in a stock. Volume can confirm a rising trend or signal that a falling trend is ending.

Psychology/economy: When investors very much want to buy a stock, they have to increase the price to find new sellers. Rising price on high volume shows that some investors are so aggressive that they push the price up to be able to buy the stock. Investtech’s Volume Balance tool measures the relation between price rise and volume and measures investor aggression at rising and falling prices. Read more

Research: Stocks with volume balance above 40 have been followed by an average annual return of 4.7 percentage points on the Nordic Stock Exchanges, shown by research conducted by Investtech into 24,580 cases.
Read the research report here

 

Investtech's analyses

Investtech has combined theory, psychology and research into powerful investment tools.

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Investtech are behavioural finance and quantitative stock analysis specialists. The company sells analysis products to private, professional and institutional investors. Investtech manage the AIFM company Investtech Invest, which invests customers’ funds in the stock market.

Investtech’s computers analyze more than 28,000 stocks from 12 different countries every day. The analyses are presented in eight languages and sold to customers worldwide. In addition to the automatic analyses, the company’s analysts present subjective assessments and recommendations for some markets. The analyses are available to customers in the form of daily morning reports and cases, and weekly market updates and model portfolios.

Investtech’s algorithms for analysis, ranking and stock recommendations are based on research dating back to 1993. Part of the research was conducted in cooperation with Oslo University and the Norwegian Research Council. Research still has high priority for Investtech. Many of the company’s research results are available for customers on the company’s web site.

The company’s basic product starts at approx. 30 euro per month. Investtech also provides bespoke products for integration on partners’ web sites and for use in newsletters, for example to stock brokers and the media. Contact us by e-mail to info@investtech.com or by phone +47 21 555 888 for more information. A free trial subscription is available to order on our web site www.investtech.com.