SalMar (SALM.OL)

Close: 542.00 (+2.50), Dec 23, 2024
Complete report

Algorithmic Overall Analysis

Negative (Score: -90)


Dec 23, 2024. Updated daily.

Analyst's Recommendation

Negative


Nov 15, 2024. 40 days ago.

Analyses


Short

Medium

Long

Overall

Insider

Medium risk

Liquidity risk: LowVolatility risk: Medium

Investor Psychology - Behavioural Finance - Quantitative Analysis - Scientific Methods

Technical Analysis - Insider Trades - Seasonal Variations - Intraday Trading

Stock data

Period  
Vol.bal. Volatility Liquidity +/- %
1 day-1.20%41.89+0.46%
5 days-79.134.24%132.44-6.71%
22 days-0.3111.08%118.35-5.08%
66 days-3.3821.58%101.71-1.19%
Price dateDec 23, 2024
CurrencyNOK
ISINNO0010310956
Rise from year low3.44%
Fall from year high-19.76%


Automatic technical analysis. Short term

chart SalMar (SALM) Short term

Short term

SalMar has broken down from an approximate horizontal trend channel in the short term. This signals a continued weak development, and the stock now meets resistance on possible reactions up towards the floor of the trend channel. The stock is between support at kroner 532 and resistance at kroner 548. A definitive break through of one of these levels predicts the new direction. The stock is assessed as technically negative for the short term.

Recommendation one to six weeks: Negative (Score: -60)

Automatic technical analysis. Medium term

chart SalMar (SALM) Medium term

Medium term

SalMar shows weak development in a falling trend channel in the medium long term. This signals increasing pessimism among investors and indicates further decline for SalMar. The stock gave a negative signal from the rectangle formation by the break down through the support at 542. Further fall to 488 or lower is signaled. The stock is testing support at kroner 533. This could give a positive reaction, but a downward breakthrough of kroner 533 means a negative signal. Volume tops and volume bottoms correspond badly with tops and bottoms in the price. This confirms the trend. The stock is overall assessed as technically negative for the medium long term.

Recommendation one to six months: Negative (Score: -85)

Automatic technical analysis. Long term

chart SalMar (SALM) Long term

Long term

SalMar has broken through the floor of a rising trend channel in the long term. This indicates a slower rising rate at first, or the start of a more horizontal development. The stock gave a negative signal from the head and shoulders formation by the break down through the support at 566. Further fall to 438 or lower is signaled. The stock has support at kroner 500 and resistance at kroner 676. The stock is overall assessed as technically slightly negative for the long term.

Recommendation one to six quarters: Weak Negative (Score: -40)

Full history

chart SalMar (SALM) Full history

Candlesticks 95 days

chart SalMar (SALM) chart0

Candlesticks 22 days

chart SalMar (SALM) chart0

Insider Trades

chart SalMar (SALM) Insider trades reported last 18 months

Insider trades reported last 18 months. The stock is negative on Insider Trades.

 Date Type Count Price Value Percent Controlled Text Importance 
 Nov 20, 2024 salg 9774 566.34 5535 5 162260 10 primærinnsidere selger 9774 etter frigivelse av RSU -98 
 May 22, 2024 salg 7900 665.00 5253 70 3233 Direktør kvalitet/HMS Eva Haugen selger 7900 -100 
 Dec 27, 2023 kjøp 1000 536.60 536 100 1000 Styremedlem Morten Loktu kjøper 1000 100 
 Nov 15, 2023 salg 500 582.46 291 6 7380 Direktør Kvalitet og HMS Eva Haugen selger 500 -37 
 Nov 13, 2023 salg 5085 569.05 2893 2 184124 11 innsidere har til sammen solgt 5085 aksjer etter frigivelse av RSUer -49 
 Nov 13, 2023 salg 4000 570.09 2280 18 18185 Roger Bekken selger 4000 -100 
 Sep 18, 2023 salg 732 558.00 408 15 4074 Konserndirektør salg & industri Simon Søbstad selger 732 -74 

Commentaries

chart SalMar (SALM) Medium term

Automatic technical analysis of the stock, based on last closing price. The chart may have changed since the analyst's recommendation was written.

Medium risk

Liquidity risk: LowVolatility risk: Medium

Analyst's Recommendation

Nov 15, 2024 (40 days ago)
Geir Linløkken
geir.linlokken@investtech.com

Recommendation one to six months: Negative

Geir Linløkken, Nov 15, 2024 (price 543.00)

Added to Short portfolio
Recommendation one to six months: Negative

Published: Morning Report (Nov 15, 2024 08:09), Stay Away Portfolio (Nov 15, 2024 08:09) [GL]

 

The analysis is written by Investtech's analyst on the given date based on the price charts of this date. The analysis is meant to be valid for a few weeks, up to a few months. Later price developments may indicate changes in the market and investor optimism, and render the analysis outdated. Investtech's automatic analyses, updated daily, will often reflect such changes.


Period  
Vol.bal. Volatility Liquidity +/- %
1 day-1.20%41.89+0.46%
5 days-79.134.24%132.44-6.71%
22 days-0.3111.08%118.35-5.08%
66 days-3.3821.58%101.71-1.19%

Previous recommendations

Fredrik Dahl Bråten, Nov 6, 2024 (price 547.00)

SalMar har de siste par årene steget mye og er tilbake til nivåene fra før debatten og innføringen av lakseskatt. Aksjen nådde i mars ett toppnivå på 675 kroner, like under rekordnivået fra april 2022 ved 684 kroner. Siden har den snudd nedover og ligger i en fallende trendkanal på mellomlang sikt. Statistisk har aksjer i fallende trender under prestert resten av markedet med 5,8 annualiserte prosentpoeng. Selskapet legger frem tall for tredjekvartal 18. november og anses nå negativ på mellomlang sikt.
Det er ingen synlig støtte i kursdiagrammet. Ved en positiv reaksjon er det motstand 640, 590 og 550 kroner, like over gårsdagens sluttkurs, som kan bremse en videre oppgang.
Selskapet svinger med 11 prosent i måneden. Risikoen i selskapet anses derfor som moderat.

Recommendation one to six months: Negative
Published: e24 (Nov 6, 2024 11:27), Morning Report (Nov 6, 2024 11:29) [FDB]

Geir Linløkken, Sep 6, 2024 (price 545.50)

Den aller svakeste aksjen fredag 6. september er olje og offshoreselskapet Aker BP, mens TGS kommer ut som den tredje svakeste aksjen nå. Begge ble omtalt i onsdagens rapport om oljeaksjene.
På andreplass over de svakeste aksjene kommer fiskeoppdrettsselskapet Salmar.

SalMar har vært en vinner på Oslo Børs i mange år, og går vil tilbake til 2012, har kursen mer enn 30-doblet seg. Også de siste par årene er kursen bra opp, men nå varsler grafen at sentimentet har snudd.
Sent i august presset investorene sterkt på for å komme seg ut av SalMar. Kursen utløste salgssignal fra en stor hode-og-skuldre-formasjon og brøt ned gjennom den tidligere støtten ved 553 kroner. Begge signalene varsler en økende pessimisme rundt aksjen. Høyt volum forsterker signalene, og et videre kursfall indikeres.
SalMar er negativ på innsidehandler etter til sammen fem salg og bare ett kjøp det siste året.

Recommendation one to six months: Negative
Published: Morning Report (Sep 6, 2024 07:25), e24 (Sep 6, 2024 09:04) [GL]

Analysts' recommendations last 18 months

chart Analysts' recommendations last 18 months
 Positive/Weak Positive
 Neutral
 Negative/Weak Negative
History of Investtech's analysts' analyses of the stock. Analyses are shown by coloured dots on the day the analysis was based on.
EvaluationTime horizonPricePublishedAnalyst
NegativeMedium term543.00       Nov 15, 2024 08:09, Morning Report, Stay Away PortfolioGL
NegativeMedium term547.00       Nov 6, 2024 11:27, e24, Morning ReportFDB
NegativeMedium term545.50       Sep 6, 2024 07:25, Morning Report, e24GL
PositiveMedium term626.00       Aug 12, 2024 08:52, Morning ReportFDB
PositiveMedium term702.80       Mar 19, 2024 22:35, Morning Report, e24FDB
PositiveMedium term643.80       Feb 27, 2024 21:04, Morning Report, Today´s CaseFDB
PositiveMedium term596.20       Jan 23, 2024 23:59, Morning Report, e24, Today´s CaseFDB
PositiveMedium term588.60       Jan 5, 2024 07:47, Stay Away PortfolioGL
Weak NegativeMedium term556.00       Dec 21, 2023 20:05, Morning Report, Stay Away PortfolioGL
Weak PositiveMedium term520.00       Nov 7, 2023 20:53, e24, Morning ReportFDB
Weak PositiveMedium term537.20       Oct 3, 2023 22:50, e24, Morning ReportFDB

FDB: Fredrik Dahl Bråten (Analyst)

GL: Geir Linløkken (Head of Analyses)

Results analysis

Average price development

chart Average price development on day before, of and after the last 5 results publications
Average price development on day before, of and after the last 5 results publications
chart Average price development from one month before to one month after the last 5 results publications
Average price development from one month before to one month after the last 5 results publications
chart Average price development on day before, of and after the last 20 results publications
Average price development on day before, of and after the last 20 results publications
chart Average price development from one month before to one month after the last 20 results publications
Average price development from one month before to one month after the last 20 results publications
The Candlestick charts show average development on the day before results publication, on day of publication and day after publication. The other charts show average development in the period from one month before to one month after results publication. The day of publication is shown in red. The shaded area is one standard deviation from the average.

Results publications in price chart

chart Results publications last 18 months

Results publications last 18 months
 Percentage change days before publication Percentage change days after publication
Publication dateDescription22 d10 d5 d1 dayPublication1 day5 d10 d22 d
Average last 5 results publications1.683.861.071.760.310.431.690.040.70
Average last 20 results publications2.792.280.680.500.54-0.450.79-0.31-0.93
The table shows percentage change from a given number of days before results publication to closing price the day before publication, change on the day of results publication and change from closing the day of publication to a given number of days after publication. Detailed charts below.

Seasonal variations

Seasonal prediction from today's date

chart Seasonal prediction from today's date
The blue line shows average price development the past 10 years, in the period from three months before to six months after today's date. The black line is actual price development in the past three months. Shaded areas are one and two standard deviations.

Monthly and annual statistics

chart Average development per month, last 10 years

Average development per month, last 10 years
chart Average development throughout the year, last 10 years

Average development throughout the year, last 10 years

Annual development from 2015 to 2024

chart 2015
2015
chart 2016
2016
chart 2017
2017
chart 2018
2018
chart 2019
2019
chart 2020
2020
chart 2021
2021
chart 2022
2022
chart 2023
2023
chart 2024
2024

Trading limits

chart Average price development quarter by quarter past 66 trading days

Average price development quarter by quarter past 66 trading days

Estimated price today

Opening541.25
High544.66
Low538.97
Close541.96
Opening to high 0.63%
Opening to low-0.42%
Opening to close 0.13%
Levels calculated from yesterday's closing price and the stock's fluctuations throughout the day in the past 66 days.


chart Average price development quarter by quarter past 5 trading days
Average past 5 trading days
chart Average price development quarter by quarter past 22 trading days
Average past 22 trading days
chart Average price development quarter by quarter past 250 trading days
Average past 250 trading days

Early warning

Close prices next day that when broken will generate new signals 
IndicatorPriceObjective
Moving average2 091.26-
High-RSI741.00-
Short Term Trading Range602.00-
Last close542.00-
Long Term Trading Range532.50-
Low-RSI519.67-
Indicator:Type of indicator generating the signal
Price:If close price next day has crossed this value, a technical signal is created
Objective:Price target for the positive or negative signal (Only listed for patterns)

Alerts

DatePriceSignal/Trading opportunityTime spanTarget
Dec 20, 2024539.50RectangleMedium term488.49
Dec 23, 2024542.00REC sell in falling trendMedium term475.92 - 493.61

Key ratios

 

Dividend yield: 6.5%

chart SalMar - Dividend yield

P/E: 21.6

chart SalMar - P/E

P/S: 2.7

chart SalMar - P/S

P/B: 3.7

chart SalMar - P/B

Dividend per share: 35.00

chart SalMar - Dividend per share

Earnings per share: 25.11

chart SalMar - Earnings per share

Revenue per share: 201.24

chart SalMar - Revenue per share

Book value per share: 147.50

chart SalMar - Book value per share

Market cap million NOK: 71 565.


De siste nøkkeltallene er beregnet ut fra delårsrapportene siste 12 måneder og sluttkurs 542.00 fra Dec 23, 2024.


Financial data

MNOK201520162017201820192020202120222023Q3-24
Revenues7 3269 03010 81711 34312 23812 91215 04420 15828 21926 571
Profit for the year1 1292 6512 2983 5792 5452 0083 3873 7153 4023 316
Profit margin15.4 %29.4 %21.2 %31.6 %20.8 %15.6 %22.5 %18.4 %12.1 %12.5 %
Book value5 1476 5987 5809 0489 0089 85113 23015 48323 07919 476
Equity ratio47.8 %49.8 %59.3 %60.4 %54.2 %49.9 %55.1 %55.1 %43.3 %35.4 %
Revenue per share64.6679.7095.47100.11108.01113.97127.71138.89213.72201.24
Book value per share45.4358.2466.9079.8679.5086.95112.31106.68174.79147.50
Earnings per share8.5520.0817.4027.1119.2715.2125.6528.1425.7725.11
Dividend per share8.5810.3016.3019.740.0017.1617.8421.9835.0035.00
Dividend payout86 %44 %80 %62 %0 %97 %62 %86 %136 %139 %


Dividend yield

chart SalMar - Dividend yield
Dividend yield is the company's share dividend in relation to the share price. It is a measure of return to shareholders. Dividend yield is calculated as Dividend per share/Share price.

Dividend yield for SALM is 6.5%.


P/E - price/earnings

chart SalMar - P/E
P/E stands for Price/Earnings, that is, share price in relation to the earnings per share. The key figures are used when assessing a share price in relation to the company's profit. Example: A P/E number of 10 means that the share costs 10 times the company's annual profit. P/E is calculated as Share price/Earnings after tax per share.

P/E for SALM is 21.6.


P/S - price/sales

chart SalMar - P/S
P/S stands for Price/Sales, that is price relative to sales. The key figures are used when evaluating a share price in relation to the company's sales. Example: A P/S number of 2.0 means that the stock costs 2.0 times the company's annual turnover. P/S is calculated as Share price/Revenue per share.

P/S for SALM is 2.7.


P/B - price/book

chart SalMar - P/B
P/B stands for Price/BookValue, that is price relative to equity. The key figures are used when evaluating a share price in relation to book equity. Example: A P/B figure of 1.8 means that the share costs 1.8 times the company's equity. P/B is calculated as Share price/Equity per share

P/B for SALM is 3.7.

Help and information - Research shows the importance of Trend, Momentum and Volume

Investtech’s analyses focus on a stock’s trend status, short term momentum and volume development. These are central topics of technical analysis theory that describe changes in investor optimism or fluctuations in a company’s financial development. However, Investtech’s strong focus on these elements is due to research results that clearly indicate causation between these factors and future return on the stock market.

Trend

Rising trend
Theory: Stocks in rising trends will continue to rise.

Psychology/economy: Rising trends indicate that the company experiences positive development and increasing buy interest among investors. Read more

Research: Stocks in rising trend channels in Investtech’s medium long term charts have been followed by an annualized excess return of 7.8 percentage points compared to average benchmark development. This is shown by Investtech’s research into 34,880 cases of stocks in rising trends on the Nordic Stock Exchanges in the period 1996 to 2015.
Read more about the research results here

 

Momentum


Theory: Stocks with rising short term momentum will continue to rise. Stocks with very strong momentum (overbought) will react backwards.

Psychology/economy: RSI above 70 shows strong positive momentum. The stock has risen in the short term without any significant reactions downwards. Investors have kept paying more to buy stocks. This indicates that more investors want to buy the stock and that the price will continue to rise. Read more

Research: Stocks with strong momentum have on average continued to rise, and more so than the average stock listed on the Exchange. This is shown by Investtech’s research into 24,208 cases of stocks on the Nordic Stock Exchanges in the period 1996 to 2015 where RSI went above 70 points, indicating strong and increasing short term momentum. On average, annualized, the stocks rose the equivalent of 11.4 percentage points more than the average stock.
Read the research report here

 

Volume


Theory: Rising prices on high volume and falling prices on low volume indicate strength in a stock. Volume can confirm a rising trend or signal that a falling trend is ending.

Psychology/economy: When investors very much want to buy a stock, they have to increase the price to find new sellers. Rising price on high volume shows that some investors are so aggressive that they push the price up to be able to buy the stock. Investtech’s Volume Balance tool measures the relation between price rise and volume and measures investor aggression at rising and falling prices. Read more

Research: Stocks with volume balance above 40 have been followed by an average annual return of 4.7 percentage points on the Nordic Stock Exchanges, shown by research conducted by Investtech into 24,580 cases.
Read the research report here

 

Investtech's analyses

Investtech has combined theory, psychology and research into powerful investment tools.


Read more.

About Investtech

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Investtech’s computers analyze more than 28,000 stocks from 12 different countries every day. The analyses are presented in eight languages and sold to customers worldwide. In addition to the automatic analyses, the company’s analysts present subjective assessments and recommendations for some markets. The analyses are available to customers in the form of daily morning reports and cases, and weekly market updates and model portfolios.

Investtech’s algorithms for analysis, ranking and stock recommendations are based on research dating back to 1993. Part of the research was conducted in cooperation with Oslo University and the Norwegian Research Council. Research still has high priority for Investtech. Many of the company’s research results are available for customers on the company’s web site.

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Investor Psychology - Behavioural Finance - Quantitative Analysis - Scientific Methods

Technical Analysis - Insider Trades - Seasonal Variations - Intraday Trading







 


Investtech guarantees neither the entirety nor accuracy of the analyses. Any consequent exposure related to the advice / signals which emerge in the analyses is completely and entirely at the investors own expense and risk. Investtech is not responsible for any loss, either directly or indirectly, which arises as a result of the use of Investtechs analyses. Details of any arising conflicts of interest will always appear in the investment recommendations. Further information about Investtechs analyses can be found here disclaimer. The content provided by Investtech.com is NOT SEC or FSA regulated and is therefore not intended for US or UK consumers.


Investtech guarantees neither the entirety nor accuracy of the analyses. Any consequent exposure related to the advice / signals which emerge in the analyses is completely and entirely at the investors own expense and risk. Investtech is not responsible for any loss, either directly or indirectly, which arises as a result of the use of Investtechs analyses. Details of any arising conflicts of interest will always appear in the investment recommendations. Further information about Investtechs analyses can be found here disclaimer. The content provided by Investtech.com is NOT SEC or FSA regulated and is therefore not intended for US or UK consumers.

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